Forecasting Lazarus Crypto Heists

### Executive Summary This research evaluates Lazarus Group/APT38 crypto heists (2017–2025) and shows that temporal attack risk can be forecasted during phases of operational regularity using inter-arrival analysis, Cox survival models, and Diamond Model clustering; key risk amplifiers include BTC market capitalization, rising IOC commit velocity, and espionage campaigns that seed TTP adaptation into crypto-targeting operations.