Predictive Defense: How to do cyber crime forecasting with examples

This article outlines a framework for forecasting financially motivated cybercrime by examining market supply–demand dynamics and drivers (consumer habits, commodity value shifts, target expansion, capability proliferation, legal/technical measures, and law enforcement pressure), mapping likely outcomes (innovation, migration, consolidation, expansion), and proposing research questions and early indicators; it illustrates the approach with the premium account/coupon code market and offers guidance to help defenders prioritize investments and refine intelligence collection.