Geopolitical Cyber Risk: War and Coercive Diplomacy

This report examines a series of DDoS attacks against Turkish airports during the early Russia–Ukraine conflict, interpreting them as potential coercive diplomacy linked to Ukraine-aligned hacktivism and contextualizing Turkey’s geopolitical position. It prioritizes hypotheses, outlines at-risk countries, and recommends forecasting and monitoring practices (e.g., scenario-based alerts and multilingual tracking) to inform proactive cyber defense.