What is Predictive Defense?

This piece introduces Predictive Defense—a proactive approach that aims to anticipate cyber threats by addressing when, where, and how attacks may occur—contrasting it with reactive methods. It advocates combining wargaming and Monte Carlo simulations to explore and quantify attack paths, building early warning systems to detect emerging threats, and leveraging geopolitical risk analysis and the cone of plausibility to forecast future scenarios. Citing rapid exploit and ransomware timelines, it argues these techniques help prioritize risks, optimize resources, and reduce defenders’ exposure windows.