Wargaming a China-Taiwan Conflict and Its Cyber Scenarios

This analysis evaluates how cyber operations could enable Chinese strategic objectives in a China–Taiwan conflict, using a CSIS wargame as a framing device. It identifies four military preconditions important to Taiwan’s defense and maps plausible adversary actions—ranging from influence operations and hacktivism to espionage, pre-positioning intrusions, disruptive/destructive attacks against critical infrastructure, and ransomware—highlighting Volt Typhoon as an example of state-linked preparatory activity and emphasizing implications for allied political will and logistics.