Trend Forecasting - How to spot the next big thing in cyber crime?

This blog post presents a framework for forecasting the cybercrime landscape by identifying how criminals monetize (extortion, commodity sales, facilitation services, and resource utilization), the demand-side drivers behind these markets, and catalysts that spark trends (market innovation under pressure, technological shifts, consumer behavior changes, and cross-market diffusion). It recommends two techniques—user journey mapping and cone of plausibility—to generate realistic future scenarios and highlights the importance of selecting observable early indicators to validate which scenarios are unfolding.