Quantum Computing Threats to the Blockchain Industry

This report assesses the future risk that fault-tolerant quantum computers could break elliptic-curve digital signatures used across major blockchain ecosystems, explaining that while no public quantum computer can currently break production signatures, the threat of key-recovery via Shor’s algorithm requires coordinated migration planning (estimated broadly between 2029–2035). It reviews resource estimates and benchmarking efforts, compares ecosystem-specific migration challenges (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana), outlines NIST post-quantum signature candidates (ML-DSA, SLH-DSA, FN-DSA) and their tradeoffs, and recommends cryptographic agility and prioritized migration for bridges, custodians, and governance systems.