Strain beneath the surface: Russia’s economic pressures amid a continuing conflict

The report assesses mounting economic strain in Russia following the invasion of Ukraine: reserves are depleting, growth from military spending is unsustainable, inflation and interest rates are rising, fuel export revenues are falling, and long-term stagnation is likely. It also documents Kremlin FIMI campaigns aimed at denying or downplaying the effects of EU sanctions and misrepresenting Western reporting to bolster a narrative of economic strength, concluding sanctions are contributing to constrained resources for the war.