The Risk of a Taiwan Invasion Is Rising Fast

Insikt Group assesses that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is unlikely in the short term (2025–2026) but that risk will likely increase from 2027 onward, as China balances domestic economic challenges with continued military modernization and coercive measures below the threshold of war. The report highlights PLA capability gaps, intensifying lawfare, potential for a temporary law enforcement-led quarantine, and disruptive cyber operations against Taiwan’s critical infrastructure, alongside indications of China-based actors pre-positioning in US critical infrastructure. It recommends businesses with exposure to Asia prepare contingency plans, diversify supply chains, enhance cyber resilience (including offline backups and network isolation), and monitor escalation indicators provided in the appendices.