Risk Scenarios for the US’s Strategic Pivot

**Executive Summary:** The report assesses the US shift toward a more force-driven security strategy in the Western Hemisphere and outlines three medium-term scenarios — authoritarian stability with US-aligned regimes, political fragmentation enabling criminal expansion, and an accelerated pivot to China — each raising distinct political, economic, and cyber risks (increased surveillance, cybercrime, threats to critical infrastructure, and regulatory fragmentation). It recommends strengthening cyber resilience, third-party risk management, flexible compliance for data-localization, and scenario-based continuity planning to mitigate these evolving risks.