Russia Seeks to Exploit Western "War Fatigue" to Win in Ukraine

This report assesses how the Kremlin evaluates and exploits Western 'war fatigue' around the Ukraine war, leveraging Soviet-era Correlation of Forces and Means (COFM) analysis and the strategy of reflexive control to shape Western decision-making and potentially reduce support for Ukraine. It outlines Russia’s information confrontation tactics—such as citing Western sources to enhance credibility and emphasizing economic strains and escalation risks—while noting that ambiguous objectives (e.g., 'de-Nazification,' 'demilitarization') give Moscow political flexibility. The authors recommend that Western governments adapt information strategies, apply precise terminology for mis/disinformation, and alleviate domestic economic pressures (e.g., energy and food costs) to diminish the effectiveness of these influence efforts.