US Violent Extremists Likely Shifting Focus to Targeted Physical Threats in 2025

Insikt Group forecasts that over the next year US-based homegrown and domestic violent extremists will prioritize targeted attacks and sabotage against personnel and facilities over mass-casualty plots, with IS/ISKP-inspired actors posing the most lethal risk; al-Qaeda affiliates, Hamas, and Iran’s Axis of Resistance primarily elevate motivation for finance/support and selective targeted operations. Threat actors are expected to increasingly exploit commercially available UAVs, generative AI, encrypted platforms, cryptocurrencies, and 3D printing, heightening risks to government, law enforcement, critical infrastructure, and sectors like defense, healthcare, finance, and education—driving the need for stronger executive protection, facility hardening, and proactive removal of exposed personal information.