Iran War: Future Scenario and Business Improvements

This report applies a PESTLE-M and Cone of Plausibility framework to outline six 6–12 month scenarios for the Iran conflict (baseline, two plausible, and three wildcard outcomes). It highlights sustained economic disruption, intermittent maritime insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, and notes an increase in cyber operations targeting energy and critical infrastructure, but focuses on geopolitical, economic, and military implications rather than technical cyber details.