Navigating 2024's Geopolitical Fault Lines
ID: 98f9e015-1b6b-5280-8387-9ea2579218bf
STIX ID: report--98f9e015-1b6b-5280-8387-9ea2579218bf
Feed Name: Recorded Future Blog
Recorded Future’s Insikt Group assesses four potential conflict escalation scenarios for 2024, finding low likelihood of NATO Article 5 escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, low probability of the Israel-Hamas conflict broadening to a second front with Hezbollah and Iranian proxies, limited expansion of Houthi hostilities beyond the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden despite ongoing low-intensity conflict, and a very low probability of China-Taiwan armed conflict; the report frames diplomatic, informational, military, and economic (DIME) signposts to monitor and anticipates continued coercive and attritional actions rather than full-scale regional wars.
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