Aggressive Malign Influence Threatens to Shape US 2024 Elections

Insikt Group assesses that Russia, China, Iran, domestic violent extremists, and hacktivist groups are likely to conduct influence operations targeting the 2024 U.S. elections, leveraging cyber-enabled tactics and generative AI to polarize discourse, erode trust in democratic institutions, and shape policy outcomes. The report warns of increased misinformation about voting technologies and potential threats to election personnel and infrastructure, and recommends a whole-of-government approach with private-sector collaboration, proactive public refutation and prebunking of falsehoods, and preplanned response playbooks.