Iranian Crypto Outflows Spike After Airstrikes Amid a Year of Rising On-Chain Activity

On-chain analysis shows a rapid spike in outflows (~$10.3M between Feb 28 and Mar 2, 2026) from major Iranian crypto exchanges following the US–Israeli airstrikes; the report assesses three plausible causes—retail flight to self-custody, exchanges reshuffling liquidity to obfuscate operations, or state-aligned actors moving funds—and emphasizes that distinguishing among them requires more time and deeper wallet-level investigation due to complicating factors like internet blackouts and service-controlled wallets.