Cone of Plausibility: Forecasting Ransomware Scenarios in 2022

## Executive summary: This blog uses the Cone of Plausibility structured analytic technique to forecast ransomware trends for 2022, identifying key drivers and assumptions and producing a baseline scenario of continued CIS-based ransomware activity, an alternative where ransom payments are criminalized (pushing activity underground and reducing visibility), and a wildcard involving alleged collaboration between ransomware gangs and Russian intelligence with potential geopolitical escalation.